Will Linux use surge in 2020?

crosscourt · 2017-10-21 23:22

Windows 7 unless its life is extended will be gone and Windows 10 continues to be far less popular than anyone expected. Could Linux surge and become more popular both among businesses and desktop users?

My plan is to move completely away from Windows by 2020, but I already mostly use Linux for my everyday tasks.

tlmiller76 · 2017-10-22 03:45

I don't see them extending the life on it. They've already killed off the ability for it to get updates on kaby lake and newer CPU's, so it's obvious they're doing everything they can to make sure that people realize they're NOT going to give it an extension like they did with XP.

I don't see it surging. I see a slight uptick, but with each update of Windows 10, M$ gets a little better at not spying so much, and I think by the time 2020 rolls around, they'll actually have it at a level that most people are willing to tolerate. So I don't see a MASSIVE influx of people scrambling to find something to run because 7 becomes unsupported. There's going to be some, but I don't envision it'll be many.

If not for games, I'd already be 100% off Windows. I keep it around for a few games, but essentially it's not allowed to have network access (as in browser other than to download updates to games), and has only github and steam installed (I beta test games so need to be able to sync repos) along with those non-steam games I play and then an antivirus. It gets booted to play games, then when finished, I reboot to linux to go online and post screenshots, issues, or just to check my various forums such as this.

Last edited by tlmiller76 (2017-10-22 03:48)

crosscourt · 2017-10-22 04:08

Same here as I use Windows 7 only for games and Im on Linux the rest of the time. The issue though is with Windows 7 use worldwide as areas of the world have large user bases and they didnt switch quickly with XP and they wont with Windows 7. So what do you do, shut it down and watch things meltdown or do a controled shutdown and offer security updates for a time. Thats what I think will happen and it will allow Win7 to exist a bit longer.

Win10 adoption isnt going well and even the company i work for uses Win 7 at this point and has no desire to move to Win 10.

Many companies and Federal agencies are either using Linux or looking to go to it by 2020 even though some have done short term deals for Windows 7.

It will be interesting to see how it pans out, and all it would take is Win 10 backing off a bit and returning some features people really want.

tlmiller76 · 2017-10-22 04:15

I've been trying to get my company moved over to Win10 for the support aspect. Probably 30-40% complete. Probably have 20-30% that will require new hardware (too old and I'm simply unwilling to put the labor in to upgrade to Win10 on hardware that old), but most of the Developers are almost giddy when they get upgraded to Win10. Luckily enough my company is only about 120 employees...so it's not an impossible task.

crosscourt · 2017-10-22 04:19

My complaint about Windows 10 is they offer new version releases on a regular basis and once they decide they will drop a version, you change or else. So far we've seen versions with problems, some bsod peoples computers, and some were forced to update and had problems. Updates that didnt work causing serious issues. The continuing issues with data privacy that the Dutch are so pissed off about they intend to sue Microsoft for breaching their data privacy laws.

It creates to much fear and uncertainty and Ive actually heard remarks to that effect from companies in my area who are looking at Linux instead.

Im hoping by 2020 that Win 10 will clean up its act and maybe Ill consider using it for gaming down the road. I do more retrogaming work these days so Im not desperate to move to Win 10.

Last edited by crosscourt (2017-10-22 04:24)

Qwertius · 2017-10-25 02:17

Interesting question.

10 years ago - who would have predicted the rise of the iOS & Android systems for mobile devices ?

I love linux and have been a Linux user for over 15 years.

But Linux is at something of a cross-road.

Its no longer the only 'free' operating system on the market.

Android is starting to get a foothold in the PC - Desktop - Laptop world.

Systems like Android X86, PhoenixOS & RemixOS are all early contenders.

I've tried them all & in my impression - they represent a growing trend that may change the Linux landscape significantly.

All I can say ---- is watch this space.

Q

crosscourt · 2017-10-25 02:42

My reaction to Android x86 and like at this point isnt very good but maybe down the road. It will be interesting to see if the trend does grow.

bin · 2017-10-25 06:30

Sadly the Linux "Year of the Desktop" has come and gone and is now a bit of a standing joke in the the world of computing commentards. Whilst it is a great shame it is also sadly true. We will never see a huge adoption of the linux desktop.

What has happened is of course that the underlying technology has become almost universal, which is a good thing.

My wife uses a laptop with a homebrew mix of xfce and lxde based on Lubuntu. That laptop is reaching end of life and will be replaced, but right now that replacement looks like being a Chromebook. Why? Well it is an appliance, if it dies and is replaced a new one will just carry on....may even get a big one myself - plus Crouton running Q4OS of course.

crosscourt · 2017-10-25 20:57

I dont think Linux will ever reach the level of Windows but in my area both business and government adoption are way up. Local use as seen just through my clients is way up and many people still use desktops and laptops regardless of what youve heard. The tech shop I use to work for has many Federal contracts for Red Hat. I agree the Linux year of the desktop isnt going tom happen but Im talking a surge short term not a huge move towards Linux all at once.

Dai_trying · 2017-10-26 06:15

I have to agree Linux will probably never reach the levels of popularity that M$ have achieved, and if I'm perfectly honest I don't mind that at all, while we are a minority we are way less likely to become the prey of the virus and malware writers. I think the only way Linux could ever be competitive to M$ is if there were a huge financial investment into development, but that would mean the investor would want some return,which in turn would lead to moneterizing (is that even a word??) Linux. Due to the licensing restrictions I do not foresee this ever happening.
Linux will definitely grow and it can be especially useful in developing countries where older hardware is likely to be more easily available, I have seen it used more in education too, which can only be a good thing. Like Qwertius said...

Qwertius wrote:

All I can say ---- is watch this space.

crosscourt · 2017-10-26 20:17

Most of the growth in Linux has been in other countries, particularly third world countries. Surges are occuring in some regions irregardless of Microsofts supposed heavy handed tactics.

Cliff_G · 2017-11-05 15:46

As a Linux relative newbie (I've messed with Ubuntu and others over the years and currently slightly more than messing with Q4OS) I would like to say yes it will, but I don't think it actually will.

I doubt Mac users would swap, and many Windows users won't since they need compatibility at an application level with things like Word and Excel. The theory is that Libre Office can provide that, but for anything much more than basic docs/ss's the risk of having a big or complex document blow up on you half way through creation/editing, or have formatting differences, for me is very real. And the user interface changes have a significant impact - people hated the move from Office 2003 to 2007 and the introduction of the Ribbon. Office to Libre Office is quite a change and whilst there are similarities to the old Office 2003 interface, I think folk have now got used to the ribbon.

What I think would help is if significant corporate users migrated (NHS? ). For example I only went to Win7 from XP once I saw the corporate world were doing it, and had used it myself and hence became comfortable (but then I am the opposite of an early adopter - through bitter experience). If my employer switched to Linux and I used it and got fully used to it and comfortable, and all the tools were there, then I would. It's to do with familiarity and being not "the unknown". The average user is not an expert and wants it to just work and not to have to fiddle - at all. I'm fine with computers generally and have worked professionally in systems support for real time control systems but Linux is still a fair bit of a learning curve for me and I get frustrated now an them. The average user has to have a 100% successful experience, which I don't think is realistically on offer yet.

With Linux (Q4OS/Ubuntu/Lubuntu/Xubuntu/Mint) I like:

- it "just works" (most of the time!)
- the easy start of the wireless network on system build (even W7 isn't that good on that, no experience with WX)
- easy printer install
- that the GUI interface is familiar, isn't complex and doesn't have waste of space ideas like "charms"
- the program installer (Synaptic - though the Q4OS one is better, though fewer programs) (don't ever call it an "App store")
- the updater is more friendly than Win & Apple
- it's more secure
- it's got Firefox & Thunderbird as virtually standard/easily available (but then I settled on these on Windoze many years ago)

What I think would need to change for larger scale usage:

- some serious marketing
- cut the punter-confusion of the huge number of distros and desktops
- narrowing the terminology a lot (like, the man in the street will ask what has Debian got to do with Linux? Also for many *many* other terms)
- not have to resort to CLI ("ever" or as near as)
- have the main hardware suppliers offer it bundled (e.g. Dell do offer Ubuntu)
- actually reduce the huge number of offerings in Synaptic, or at least make navigating the options easier and what each program does more obvious
- have a support system as good as Q4OS's

Last edited by Cliff_G (2017-11-05 16:08)

crosscourt · 2017-11-05 17:48

What Im seeing locally in my area is a lot of crossover users, mostly Windows 7. The number of Linux/Windows users has grown hugely and many of them are learning to use Virtualbox to run apps they need but more often stick to Linux far more than they thought they would initially. Im a crossover user myself as I use both all the time even though I favor Linux and plan to move to it solely by 2020.

Apple users, Ive seen many switch over to Windows and some predict Linux will overcome OS X in usage in a few years. Its slow and steady but even this level of activity surprised me and Ive been in this market since 1975.

Cliff_G · 2017-11-06 15:50

I think the fact that people can't just switch to Linux says a lot. Why not? Why do people have to run parallel OSs? What's missing / difficult / doesn't work / isn't compatible? It's these things that the Linux OSs have to address. Like at present I can't find a backup program for Q4OS that I can just install from Synaptic and just have it work without having to dig deep to find out what it all means, which I am sure I could do, but this is basic stuff, backups. If every time I want to do something pretty darned simple I have to go to night school to understand what I'm doing, that doesn't endear me!

Last edited by Cliff_G (2017-11-06 15:53)

Dai_trying · 2017-11-06 21:17

I maintain one machine with a Windows partition and that is mainly due to me helping other windows users with their systems although I don't have many left as I am slowly converting them to Linux, I have 3 laptops and 4 desktops and 1 server in the house all (except one) running linux as the only OS (multi-booting different distro's though) and I do keep a copy of XP in virtualbox which can be handy for some of my other projects (using lededit2013 for my christmas led matrix display).

I cannot see a time where i would rely on a M$ operating system for daily use again, but I have been using Linux for some years now and understand it pro's and con's and can usually work around them with a little bash or python, but that is more than most users would want to have to learn. I can understand their logic, but I don't mind learning a few new tricks to make me far more productive, there's nothing I can think of that would be quicker on a M$ system.

I don't see any reason Linux use will "surge" but I think it will probably build slowly and surely year on year and one day who knows it could become as popular (in number) as the "major players".

crosscourt · 2017-11-06 23:16

I use Windows for gaming and helping Windows users, thats it. Linux is used for most everyday needs and over time Ill even game with it. Most peoplr who crossover typically have apps they need for work and thus want a Windows install for some needs. As i said many of my users are learning about running apps virtually and will eventually run Linux only.

A surge in my opinion is any improvement at a rate substancialy better than the standard quo. That leaves a lot of room as to what surge would be and is that a 1% change or a 3% or better change?

Locally in my area ive seen a surge where a much larger number of people are using Linux and its noticeable.

Right now ive got 10 desktops with three that have Windows on them, 6 with Linux and one test system thats got a lot of various OS.
7 laptops and only 2 have Windows the rest Linux.

Last edited by crosscourt (2017-11-07 02:55)

tlmiller76 · 2017-11-07 04:29

I stopped helping Windows users other than my wife unless it's paid a few years ago. I do have a few people that have migrated over to Linux, mostly friends who's machines died and didn't have the $$$$ for a new machine, so I'd get something cheap for them and set up a Linux machine. A few have stayed with linux even after having the money to replace what I gave them.

As far as machines and OS's, I have only a single desktop, linux 90% of the time unless I wanna play games, then Windows 10. I have 5 laptops, all have linux on them, 1 also has Windows for gaming only. Technically I have 6, but 1 is being sold on Ebay as I see no reason in keeping it as it's nearly identical to another one I have, so it's got Windows back on it to help with selling it.

crosscourt · 2017-11-07 20:08

I help Windows users mainly to get paid but still help friends and family. Its also nice as i can show them the advantages of Linux over Windows with dual demos.

Mu systems are too old to swll so I donate them to non-profits or give them to seniors myself.

Q4OS Forum

#1 2017-10-21 23:22

Will Linux use surge in 2020?

#2 2017-10-22 03:45

Re: Will Linux use surge in 2020?

#3 2017-10-22 04:08

Re: Will Linux use surge in 2020?

#4 2017-10-22 04:15

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#5 2017-10-22 04:19

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#6 2017-10-25 02:17

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#7 2017-10-25 02:42

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#8 2017-10-25 06:30

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#9 2017-10-25 20:57

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#10 2017-10-26 06:15

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#11 2017-10-26 20:17

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#12 2017-11-05 15:46

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#13 2017-11-05 17:48

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#14 2017-11-06 15:50

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#15 2017-11-06 21:17

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#16 2017-11-06 23:16

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#17 2017-11-07 04:29

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#18 2017-11-07 20:08

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